May 4, 2021

COVID-19 Update: This Week’s Numbers

Good morning. Just a reminder, myWELLNESS® has the Moderna vaccine! Please text or call (915) 845-5700 to make an appointment (18 years old and up).

Our numbers this week show continued improvement locally and throughout most of the US. Globally however, the situation continues to worsen in many parts of the developing world.

For the second time in six weeks, US average daily cases have decreased, this week by 27% to 49,266 (16% decrease last week, 5% increase two weeks ago and 11% increase three weeks ago).

In El Paso cases and hospital admissions showed modest improvement this week. With so many people trying to get back to “normal” (i.e. going out and gathering), this is encouraging.

El Paso Data

Average Daily New Cases: 133 (144 one week ago and 141 two weeks ago)

Average Daily Hospitalized Patients: 155 (170 one week ago and 172 two weeks ago)—(10% of Total Beds / 27% of Available Beds)

Average Daily ICU Patients: 48 (50 one week ago and 52 two weeks ago)—(21% of Total Beds / 62% of Available Beds)

Known Active Cases: 2,258 (2,375 one week and 2,525 two weeks ago)

Weekly Mortality

El Paso: 28 (13 last week)

Texas: 370 (346 last week)

US: 4,846 (4,983 last week)

Global: 93,097 (90,308 last week)

At this time, we continue to advise shelter-at-home until you and your contacts are vaccinated

This week the average number of hospitalized patients in El Paso decreased 10% (1% decrease last week). Average ICU patients decreased 4% (4% decrease last week). Overall hospitalizations have improved 12 out of the past 14 weeks. Daily cases have decreased 9 out of the past 13 weeks (with a 8% decrease this week).

However, despite this encouraging overall trend, there are still too many cases in our community. Our current risk of COVID-19 infection and spread remains high. Remember, we estimate nearly 230,000 people in El Paso have still not had COVID-19 or been vaccinated. As a public good (and duty), please do not relax your efforts until we are truly safe and you and those you associate with are vaccinated. Full immunity does not develop until after the second dose of the two shot vaccines (1 week after Pfizer and 2 weeks after Moderna) and you can still catch and transmit COVID-19. With Janssen, immunity begins 2 weeks after the single shot.

COVID-19 Update: Vaccination

Just a reminder, myWELLNESS® has the Moderna vaccine! Please text or call (915) 845-5700 to make an appointment (18 years old and up).

This week worldwide COVID-19 vaccinations reached 1.18 billion doses (1.03 billion last week). US vaccinations stand at 247 million (229 million last week) and the US is currently 3rd best per capita and 2nd best in total vaccinations. China has now vaccinated 280 million. This equates to 15% of the world population and 75% of the US population. About 106 million or 32% of Americans are fully vaccinated (29% last week).

To clarify, following per capita vaccinations versus those fully vaccinated is a method of comparing vaccination efforts in different places. However, it includes all doses given and does not always represent immunity.

The US is now second in total vaccinations after being surpassed by China this week.

El Paso continues to make progress toward our threshold for herd immunity of 70 to 90%. As of today 412,177 (391,804 last week) have received at least one dose and 277,122 (249,137 last week) have received both. (Our population 16 and older is 640,180). This means 33% of our population is fully vaccinated. If we add to this an estimated 339,000 infections, our estimated combined immunity is 614,000 or 73% (infections + fully immunized—70% last week).

However, vaccinations may be beginning to slow locally and nationally. Essentially, those that want the vaccine have largely gotten it. Nearly 230,000 eligible El Paso residents have not been vaccinated. Many in this group are afraid of the vaccine or are waiting to see how the situation evolves. This is a luxury indeed.

With 1,180,000,000 vaccines given worldwide there is no doubt about the short term safety of any brand. Long term, the chances of harm are extremely low considering the vaccine merely helps our cells make fragments of COVID-19 spike proteins. While fearing vaccination is understandable to some extent, nearly all such fear is driven by politics. In fact, nearly everyone who refuses vaccination sits in a certain political camp. The 577,565 dead in America and 3,215,270 dead around the world isn’t enough to sway them. Or, the numbers are faked.

It is easy it is to say such things from a distance, when you haven’t seen COVID-19 strike first hand. Easy when you haven’t had the chance to watch someone die surrounded by strangers in an isolation room or had to break the news to the spouse or children left behind.

Science, like math, relies on and is based on truth. The same people that fear the vaccine unhesitatingly believe in medical science, believe their doctor, with just about any other illness. They do not question the cardiologist who saves them from a heart attack or the ER doctor from trauma. What a luxury to choose which part of science, which part of math, in which one believes. The problem is this choice, this “liberty”, may put us all at risk. If 27% or 230,000 in El Paso eligible for the vaccine refuse it, we may not achieve herd immunity.

If you have the chance to be vaccinated, please take it. In Texas all adults are now eligible for vaccination. Remember, so far these vaccines appear to prevent nearly 100% of hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID-19. To reiterate, these vaccines are both extremely safe and extremely effective. Use of the Janssen vaccine has been cleared by the FDA, including for premenopausal women. The six widely publicized cases of rare blood clots among 7 million vaccine recipients turns out to be near the incidence of this disorder in the general population.

Please get vaccinated as soon as possible, if not for yourself, for the good of others.

Vaccination Links:

Text or call myWELLNESS® at (915) 845-5700

University Medical Center

Immunize El Paso

City of El Paso Department of Public Health

Albertsons

Walmart

CVS

Walgreens

UTEP (Students and Employees)

VA Patients

El Paso Times COVID-19 Vaccination Guide

myWELLNESS® COVID-19 Vaccine Update

Military Retirees / Active Duty: WBAMC call (915) 742-2915

To reiterate, the primary risk of exposure is being indoors with others. Remember, this virus is airborne and can linger for 6 hours in the air. At this time all indoor public spaces should be assumed to be contaminated. If you gather with others at home, the air in your home very likely contains viral particles.

Similarly, anyone you come in contact with at this time should be considered contagious. We urge you to stay home and avoid having anyone visit you in person if possible. If you do have to go out or if someone has to visit, be sure to wear an N95 or KN95 mask (click the link below for an example). Remember, regular masks protect others more than the wearer and only work if everyone wears them (and keeps them on). Another helpful measure is having a home or office HEPA filter (see the link below). These filters can help remove droplets that contain airborne COVID-19 particles and offer another layer of protection. If you haven’t, please consider ordering a home COVID-19 test kit as well (see link below). As always, notify us immediately if you are exposed or have symptoms.

Wishing you good health,

CG Escandon, MD

Douglas Payne, MD

COVID-19 Information

For the week of 5/3/2021

Assumptions:

• Mortality rate between 0.5% and 1.5% — using 0.75%

• This means 1 death for every 133 infections

• For May 2 — 2,540 total deaths = 339,000 total cases

• 60% or 501,000 El Pasoans have not been infected yet

• The number of deaths lags behind the number of infections by 2-4 weeks

• We estimate the current infection rate to be higher than stated as of May 2nd

Assumptions:

Staffed Hospital Beds: 1754

Available Hospital Beds: 572 (1/3 of total)

Staffed ICU Beds: 234

Available ICU Beds: 77 (1/3 of total)

COVID-19 Vaccine: Additional Resources

Although shipments have been very sporadic, you may have success with these providers in addition to those listed above.

Mountain West Family Medicine (915) 584-8124
Immunize El Paso East (915) 857-2474
Texas Tech Physicians of El Paso Transmountain (915) 215-8400
El Paso Pulmonary Association (915) 532-2477
Family Medicine Associates of El Paso (915) 594-1033
EP Family Doctor (915) 855-7000
Dr Lipanova (915) 751-5245
Dr Calianga (915) 592-6868

Please get vaccinated as soon as you can!


CG Escandon, MD
Douglas Payne, MD