April 12, 2021

COVID-19 Update: This Week’s Numbers

Greetings. This week’s numbers continue to worsen but may show signs of slowing. For the third week in a row the US has seen an increase in daily cases but smaller than the previous two weeks (11% this week and 18% last week). Nationally average daily cases stand at 69,632 per day (64,019 last week). Similarly, in El Paso we have had two weeks in a row of increased cases but the trend appears to be slowing (173 average daily cases compared with 162 last week—6% increase).

There appears to be optimism on the horizon. But, it is important to remember that around the world 84,013 people and 7,065 Americans died of COVID-19 in the past week.

Average Daily New Cases: 173 (162 one week ago and 142 two weeks ago)

Average Daily Hospitalized Patients: 159 (164 one week ago and 193 two weeks ago)—(9% of Total Beds / 28% of Available Beds)

Average Daily ICU Patients: 53 (63 one week ago and 65 two weeks ago)—(23% of Total Beds / 68% of Available Beds)

Known Active Cases: 2,446 (2,129 one week and 2,051 two weeks ago)

At this time, we continue to advise shelter-at-home until you and your contacts are vaccinated

This week the average number of hospitalized patients has decreased 3% (18% decrease last week). Average ICU patients have decreased 20% (3% decrease last week). Overall hospitalizations have improved ten out of the past eleven weeks. Daily cases have decreased seven out of the past ten weeks (with a 6% increase this week).

Due to the persistent number of cases in our community our current risk remains high. Please do not relax your efforts until we are truly safe and you and those you associate with are vaccinated. Remember you are not immune until after the second dose of the two shot vaccines (1 week after Pfizer and 2 weeks after Moderna) and you can still catch and transmit COVID-19. With Janssen, immunity begins 2 weeks after the single shot.

COVID-19 Update: Vaccination

On the vaccination front worldwide COVID-19 vaccinations are now at 814 million doses (665 million last week). In the US vaccinations have reached nearly 190 million (165 million last week). The US is now 4th best per capita and by far the best in total numbers of vaccine administered. This equates to 10% of the world population and 57% of the US population. About 22% of Americans are fully vaccinated (19% last week). To clarify, following per capita vaccinations is a method of comparing vaccination efforts in different places. However, it includes all doses given and does not represent the proportion of fully immunized people.

The US continues to lead in total vaccinations.

El Paso continues to make progress toward our threshold for herd immunity (between 100,000 and 200,000 vaccinated). As of today 313,149 (262,334 last week) have received at least one dose and 194,546 (156,478 last week) have received both. (Our population 16 and older is 640,180). This means 30% of our population is fully vaccinated. If we add to this an estimated 323,000 infections, our estimated combined immunity is 515,000 or 61% (infections + fully immunized).

At this point, it appears unlikely we will receive the vaccine before it is widely available. As before, please get vaccinated as soon as possible wherever you can. Most sites do not allow registration except during specific small windows but check back often. Nearly all sites run out of vaccine reservations within minutes of opening registration. Be persistent and check all avenues regularly. Those who have been able to receive the vaccine have done so through persistence (and some luck). Thankfully, it is getting easier.

Vaccination Links:

University Medical Center

Immunize El Paso

City of El Paso Department of Public Health

Albertsons

Walmart

CVS

Walgreens

UTEP (Students and Employees)

VA Patients

El Paso Times COVID-19 Vaccination Guide

myWELLNESS® COVID-19 Vaccine Update

Military Retirees / Active Duty: WBAMC call (915) 742-2915

Remember, so far these vaccines appear to prevent nearly 100% of hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID-19. To reiterate, we feel these vaccines are safe and extremely effective. Please get vaccinated as soon as possible, if not for yourself, for the good of others.

To reiterate, the primary risk of exposure is being indoors with others. Remember, this virus is airborne and can linger for 6 hours in the air. At this time all indoor public spaces should be assumed to be contaminated. If you gather with others at home, the air in your home very likely contains viral particles.

Similarly, anyone you come in contact with at this time should be considered contagious. We urge you to stay home and avoid having anyone visit you in person if possible. If you do have to go out or if someone has to visit, be sure to wear an N95 or KN95 mask (click the link below for an example). Remember, regular masks protect others more than the wearer and only work if everyone wears them (and keeps them on). Another helpful measure is having a home or office HEPA filter (see the link below). These filters can help remove droplets that contain airborne COVID-19 particles and offer another layer of protection. If you haven’t, please consider ordering a home COVID-19 test kit as well (see link below). As always, notify us immediately if you are exposed or have symptoms.

Wishing you good health,

CG Escandon, MD

Douglas Payne, MD

Links:

KN95 masks: (https://www.amazon.com/dp/B089P1RC2K/ref=dp_prsubs_1)

Home COVID-19 test kits: (https://www.pixel.labcorp.com)

Medical grade HEPA filter: (https://medifyair.com)

COVID-19 Information

For the week of 4/12/2021

Assumptions:

• Mortality rate between 0.5% and 1.5% — using 0.75%

• This means 1 death for every 133 infections

• For April 12 — 2,478 total deaths = 330,000 total cases

• 61% or 510,000 El Pasoans have not been infected yet

• The number of deaths lags behind the number of infections by 2-4 weeks

• We estimate the current infection rate to be higher than stated as of April 12th

Assumptions:

Staffed Hospital Beds: 1754

Available Hospital Beds: 572 (1/3 of total)

Staffed ICU Beds: 234

Available ICU Beds: 77 (1/3 of total)

December 29, 2020

COVID-19 Vaccine Update

Good morning. Some quick tips as we head into the New Year break. In the last vaccine newsletter we published a list of providers that had been approved to receive the Moderna vaccine. We have heard some patients were able to get appointments. Please try these and let us know if you are successful.

Mountain West Family Medicine (915) 584-8124
Immunize El Paso East (915) 857-2474
Texas Tech Physicians of El Paso Transmountain (915) 215-8400
El Paso Pulmonary Association (915) 532-2477
Family Medicine Associates of El Paso (915) 594-1033
EP Family Doctor (915) 855-7000
Dr Lipanova (915) 751-5245
Dr Calianga (915) 592-6868

University Medical Center West and other UMC sites will continue vaccinating patients with risk factors. This includes those 75 and older or 18 and older with chronic illness (diabetes, obesity, asthma, immunodeficiency, etc). Please call for appointments or to be put on the waiting list (915) 544-1200 or (915) 975-8900.

The City of El Paso Department of Public Health will roll out vaccine for additional groups over the next few weeks. You can follow the status here:
http://epstrong.org/vaccine.php.

Please get vaccinated as soon as you can!


CG Escandon, MD
Douglas Payne, MD