June 7, 2021

COVID-19 Update: This Week’s Numbers

Good morning. Hope you had a fabulous weekend. Local and national numbers continue to show sustained improvement. This is extremely encouraging with many more social gatherings and less mask use. Globally, the picture remains grim. Here is our current status.

El Paso Data

Average Daily New Cases: 21 (32 one week ago and 62 two weeks ago)

Average Daily Hospitalized Patients: 65 (81 one week ago and 85 two weeks ago)—(5% of Total Beds / 11% of Available Beds)

Average Daily ICU Patients: 24 (28 one week ago and 30 two weeks ago)—(10% of Total Beds / 31% of Available Beds)

Known Active Cases: 626 (911 one week and 1,217 two weeks ago)

Weekly Mortality

El Paso: 4 (13 last week)

Texas: 291 (291 last week)

US: 3,194 (4,544 last week)

Global: 187,195 (78,073 last week)

At this time, we continue to advise extreme caution until you and your contacts are vaccinated

For the 7 out of the past 11 weeks, US average daily cases have decreased, this week by 45% to 13,925 (compared with 20,055 the previous two weeks). Daily cases in El Paso decreased 35% to 21 per day (32 per day last week). Locally, daily cases have decreased 14 out of the past 18 weeks.

This past week El Paso has seen a continued improvement in hospitalizations as well. This week the average number of hospitalized patients in El Paso decreased 24% (4% decrease last week). Average ICU patients decreased 16% (6% decrease last week). Overall hospitalizations have improved 17 out of the past 19 weeks.

Our current risk of COVID-19 infection and spread remains high with an estimated 98,000 who have neither had COVID-19 nor been vaccinated. There are still nearly 152,000 eligible people 16 and older who have not been vaccinated.

As a public good (and duty), please do not relax your efforts until we are truly safe and you and those you associate with are vaccinated. Full immunity does not develop until after the second dose of the two shot vaccines (1 week after Pfizer and 2 weeks after Moderna) and you can still catch and transmit COVID-19. With Janssen, immunity begins 2 weeks after the single shot.

COVID-19 Update: Vaccination

Vaccinations continue to roll out at a modest pace across the US. While there is still no hard date for children to receive the Moderna vaccine, rumors are that it will be this month. This may include children 6 months to 11 years of age.

This week worldwide COVID-19 vaccinations reached 2.1 billion doses (1.9 billion last week). US vaccinations stand at 302 million (295 million last week). The US is currently 8th best per capita and 2nd best in the total number of vaccinations given. China has now administered 763 million doses. About 139 million or 42% of Americans are fully vaccinated (41% last week).

The US remains second in total vaccinations and eighth in per capita vaccinations.

El Paso continues to make progress toward our threshold for herd immunity of 70 to 90%. This week an additional 12,730 in El Paso received their first dose (18,880 last week) and 14,436 their second (19,254 last week). As of today 488,514 (475,784 last week) have received at least one dose and 392,427 (377,991 last week) have received both. (Our population 16 and older is 640,180). This means 47% of our population is fully vaccinated. If we add to this an estimated 349,000 infections, our estimated combined immunity is 742,00 or 88% (infections + fully immunized—87% last week). Approximately 98,000 El Paso residents remain at risk (not vaccinated or infected) and nearly 152,000 eligible people have not been vaccinated.

If you have the chance to be vaccinated, please take it. In Texas all people age 12 and older are eligible for vaccination. Remember, so far these vaccines appear to prevent nearly 100% of hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID-19. To reiterate, these vaccines are both extremely safe and extremely effective. Use of the Janssen vaccine has been cleared by the FDA, including for premenopausal women. The six widely publicized cases of rare blood clots among 7 million vaccine recipients turns out to be near the incidence of this disorder in the general population.

Please get vaccinated as soon as possible, if not for yourself, for the good of others.

Vaccination Links:

Text or call myWELLNESS® at (915) 845-5700

University Medical Center

Immunize El Paso

City of El Paso Department of Public Health

Albertsons

Walmart

CVS

Walgreens

UTEP (Students and Employees)

VA Patients

El Paso Times COVID-19 Vaccination Guide

myWELLNESS® COVID-19 Vaccine Update

Military Retirees / Active Duty: WBAMC call (915) 742-2915

Wishing you good health,

CG Escandon, MD

Douglas Payne, MD

COVID-19 Information

For the week of 6/7/2021

Assumptions:

• Mortality rate between 0.5% and 1.5% — using 0.75%

• This means 1 death for every 133 infections

• For June 6 — 2,621 total deaths = 349,000 total cases

• 59% or 491,000 El Pasoans have not been infected yet

• The number of deaths lags behind the number of infections by 2-4 weeks

• We estimate the current infection rate to be higher than stated as of June 6th

Assumptions:

Staffed Hospital Beds: 1754

Available Hospital Beds: 572 (1/3 of total)

Staffed ICU Beds: 234

Available ICU Beds: 77 (1/3 of total)