April 26, 2021
COVID-19 Update: This Week’s Numbers
Greetings on this fine cool day. We hope you had a wonderful weekend. Before we get into the numbers, myWELLNESS® has the Moderna vaccine! Please text (915) 845-5700 to make an appointment (18 years old and up).
This week brings continued good news for the US, for most states individually and for El Paso. However, the global situation has come to a crisis with the highest number of new cases worldwide since the start of the pandemic.
In the US, for the first time in five weeks, the average number of daily cases has decreased 16% to 58,353 (5% increase last week, 11% increase two weeks ago and 18% increase three weeks ago). Most states, including Michigan, are showing decreases in new cases.
El Paso case numbers continue to decrease although hospitalizations remain plateaued. Despite relatively high numbers of hospitalizations, we had the fewest deaths this week since July, 2020. This fits with the evolution of our immunity—nearly every high risk person has been vaccinated. This trend needs to continue across the country and around the world.
El Paso Data
Average Daily New Cases: 144 (141 one week ago and 173 two weeks ago)
Average Daily Hospitalized Patients: 170 (172 one week ago and 159 two weeks ago)—(10% of Total Beds / 30% of Available Beds)
Average Daily ICU Patients: 50 (52 one week ago and 53 two weeks ago)—(21% of Total Beds / 65% of Available Beds)
Known Active Cases: 2,375 (2,525 one week and 2,446 two weeks ago)
Weekly Mortality
El Paso: 13
Texas: 346
US: 4,983
Global: 90,308
At this time, we continue to advise shelter-at-home until you and your contacts are vaccinated
This week the average number of hospitalized patients in El Paso decreased 1% (8% increase last week). Average ICU patients decreased 4% (3% decrease last week). Overall hospitalizations have improved eleven out of the past thirteen weeks. Daily cases have decreased eight out of the past twelve weeks (with a 2% increase this week).
Due to the persistent number of cases in our community our current risk of COVID-19 infection and spread remains high. Remember, we estimate nearly 300,000 people in El Paso have still not had COVID-19 or been vaccinated. Thankfully, many of this group are younger and lower risk. However, as a public good (and duty), please do not relax your efforts until we are truly safe and you and those you associate with are vaccinated. Remember you are not immune until after the second dose of the two shot vaccines (1 week after Pfizer and 2 weeks after Moderna) and you can still catch and transmit COVID-19. With Janssen, immunity begins 2 weeks after the single shot.
COVID-19 Update: Vaccination
Last week, after months of requests, we received a sizable delivery of the Moderna vaccine. We will be offering this to adults 18 and older over the next two weeks. Please text (915) 845-5700 for appointments.
This week worldwide COVID-19 vaccinations reached 1.03 billion doses (905 million last week). US vaccinations stand at 229 million (209 million last week) and the US remains 4th best per capita. China has now vaccinated 224 million. This equates to 13.2% of the world population and 69% of the US population. About 29% of Americans are fully vaccinated (26% last week).
To clarify, following per capita vaccinations versus those fully vaccinated is a method of comparing vaccination efforts in different places. However, it includes all doses given and does not always represent immunity.
1.03 Billion Doses = 13.2%
7.8 Billion Population
The US continues to lead in total vaccinations but will likely be surpassed by China in the next few days.
US: 69 Vaccination doses per 100 people
America 4th best per capita
El Paso continues to make progress toward our threshold for herd immunity of 70 to 90%. As of today 391,804 (356,974 last week) have received at least one dose and 249,137 (226,616 last week) have received both. (Our population 16 and older is 640,180). This means 30% of our population is fully vaccinated. If we add to this an estimated 335,000 infections, our estimated combined immunity is 584,000 or 70% (infections + fully immunized—66% last week).
If you have the chance to be vaccinated, please take it. In Texas all adults are now eligible for vaccination. Remember, so far these vaccines appear to prevent nearly 100% of hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID-19. To reiterate, these vaccines are both extremely safe and extremely effective. Use of the Janssen vaccine has been cleared by the FDA, including for premenopausal women. The six widely publicized cases of rare blood clots among 7 million vaccine recipients turns out to be near the incidence of this disorder in the general population.
Please get vaccinated as soon as possible, if not for yourself, for the good of others.
Vaccination Links:
Text myWELLNESS® at (915) 845-5700
City of El Paso Department of Public Health
El Paso Times COVID-19 Vaccination Guide
myWELLNESS® COVID-19 Vaccine Update
Military Retirees / Active Duty: WBAMC call (915) 742-2915
To reiterate, the primary risk of exposure is being indoors with others. Remember, this virus is airborne and can linger for 6 hours in the air. At this time all indoor public spaces should be assumed to be contaminated. If you gather with others at home, the air in your home very likely contains viral particles.
Similarly, anyone you come in contact with at this time should be considered contagious. We urge you to stay home and avoid having anyone visit you in person if possible. If you do have to go out or if someone has to visit, be sure to wear an N95 or KN95 mask (click the link below for an example). Remember, regular masks protect others more than the wearer and only work if everyone wears them (and keeps them on). Another helpful measure is having a home or office HEPA filter (see the link below). These filters can help remove droplets that contain airborne COVID-19 particles and offer another layer of protection. If you haven’t, please consider ordering a home COVID-19 test kit as well (see link below). As always, notify us immediately if you are exposed or have symptoms.
Wishing you good health,
CG Escandon, MD
Douglas Payne, MD
Links:
KN95 masks: (https://www.amazon.com/dp/B089P1RC2K/ref=dp_prsubs_1)
Home COVID-19 test kits: (https://www.pixel.labcorp.com)
Medical grade HEPA filter: (https://medifyair.com)
COVID-19 Information
For the week of 4/26/2021
El Paso Average Daily Hospitalizations & Weekly Deaths
El Paso Deaths & Extrapolated Community Infection Rate
Assumptions:
Mortality rate between 0.5% and 1.5% — using 0.75%
This means 1 death for every 133 infections
For April 26 — 2,512 total deaths = 335,000 total cases
60% or 505,000 El Pasoans have not been infected yet
The number of deaths lags behind the number of infections by 2-4 weeks
We estimate the current infection rate to be higher than stated as of April 26th
El Paso Average Daily COVID-19 Admissions vs. Bed Capacity
Assumptions:
Staffed Hospital Beds: 1754
Available Hospital Beds: 572 (1/3 of total)
Staffed ICU Beds: 234
Available ICU Beds: 77 (1/3 of total)
COVID 19 El Paso Cases
COVID 19 El Paso Deaths
COVID 19 Texas Cases
COVID 19 Texas Deaths
COVID 19 US Cases
COVID 19 US Deaths
COVID 19 World Cases
COVID 19 World Deaths
COVID-19 Vaccine: Additional Resources
Although shipments have been very sporadic, you may have success with these providers in addition to those listed above.
Mountain West Family Medicine (915) 584-8124
Immunize El Paso East (915) 857-2474
Texas Tech Physicians of El Paso Transmountain (915) 215-8400
El Paso Pulmonary Association (915) 532-2477
Family Medicine Associates of El Paso (915) 594-1033
EP Family Doctor (915) 855-7000
Dr Lipanova (915) 751-5245
Dr Calianga (915) 592-6868
Please get vaccinated as soon as you can!
CG Escandon, MD
Douglas Payne, MD