April 19, 2021

COVID-19 Update: This Week’s Numbers

Good morning. National and local numbers continue to run parallel this week with continuing escalation and mixed data. For the fourth week in a row the US has seen an increase in daily cases. Thankfully this 5% increase is smaller than the previous three weeks (11% last week, 18% two weeks ago and 15% three weeks ago). Nationally average daily cases stand at 67,308 per day (69,632 last week). New cases in New York and New Jersey have begun to decelerate. Michigan continues to have a concerning spike accounting for ten percent of US cases, a reminder of potential danger.

El Paso could face a similar risk if precautions (especially masks) are lifted entirely. We estimate approximately 315,000 people have still not had COVID-19 or been vaccinated. Thankfully, after three weeks in a row of increased cases, this week brings us a 22% decrease (141 average daily cases compared with 173 last week).

El Paso Data

Average Daily New Cases: 141 (173 one week ago and 162 two weeks ago)

Average Daily Hospitalized Patients: 172 (159 one week ago and 164 two weeks ago)—(9% of Total Beds / 30% of Available Beds)

Average Daily ICU Patients: 52 (53 one week ago and 63 two weeks ago)—(22% of Total Beds / 67% of Available Beds)

Known Active Cases: 2,525 (2,446 one week and 2,129 two weeks ago)

At this time, we continue to advise shelter-at-home until you and your contacts are vaccinated

This week the average number of hospitalized patients has increased 8% (3% decrease last week). Average ICU patients have decreased 3% (3% decrease last week). Overall hospitalizations have improved ten out of the past twelve weeks. Daily cases have decreased eight out of the past eleven weeks (with a 22% decrease this week).

Due to the persistent number of cases in our community our current risk remains high. Remember, we estimate over 300,000 people in El Paso have still not had COVID-19 or been vaccinated. Please do not relax your efforts until we are truly safe and you and those you associate with are vaccinated. Remember you are not immune until after the second dose of the two shot vaccines (1 week after Pfizer and 2 weeks after Moderna) and you can still catch and transmit COVID-19. With Janssen, immunity begins 2 weeks after the single shot.

COVID-19 Update: Vaccination

On the vaccination front worldwide COVID-19 vaccinations are now at 905 million doses (814 million last week). In the US vaccinations have reached nearly 209 million (190 million last week). The US is 4th best per capita and by far the best in total numbers of vaccine administered. This equates to 11.5% of the world population and 63% of the US population. About 26% of Americans are fully vaccinated (22% last week).

To clarify, following per capita vaccinations versus those fully vaccinated is a method of comparing vaccination efforts in different places. However, it includes all doses given and does not represent immunity.

The US continues to lead in total vaccinations.

El Paso continues to make progress toward our threshold for herd immunity of 70 to 90%. As of today 356,974 (313,149 last week) have received at least one dose and 222,616 (194,546 last week) have received both. (Our population 16 and older is 640,180). This means 27% of our population is fully vaccinated. If we add to this an estimated 333,000 infections, our estimated combined immunity is 555,000 or 66% (infections + fully immunized—61% last week).

If you have the chance to be vaccinated, please take it. In Texas all adults are now eligible for vaccination. Remember, so far these vaccines appear to prevent nearly 100% of hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID-19. To reiterate, these vaccines are both extremely safe and extremely effective. Although the Janssen vaccine remains paused, this will likely be temporary. The six widely publicized cases of rare blood clots among 7 million vaccine recipients is likely near the incidence of this disorder in the general population. So far, this has only occurred in pre-menopausal women.

Please get vaccinated as soon as possible, if not for yourself, for the good of others.

Vaccination Links:

University Medical Center

Immunize El Paso

City of El Paso Department of Public Health

Albertsons

Walmart

CVS

Walgreens

UTEP (Students and Employees)

VA Patients

El Paso Times COVID-19 Vaccination Guide

myWELLNESS® COVID-19 Vaccine Update

Military Retirees / Active Duty: WBAMC call (915) 742-2915

To reiterate, the primary risk of exposure is being indoors with others. Remember, this virus is airborne and can linger for 6 hours in the air. At this time all indoor public spaces should be assumed to be contaminated. If you gather with others at home, the air in your home very likely contains viral particles.

Similarly, anyone you come in contact with at this time should be considered contagious. We urge you to stay home and avoid having anyone visit you in person if possible. If you do have to go out or if someone has to visit, be sure to wear an N95 or KN95 mask (click the link below for an example). Remember, regular masks protect others more than the wearer and only work if everyone wears them (and keeps them on). Another helpful measure is having a home or office HEPA filter (see the link below). These filters can help remove droplets that contain airborne COVID-19 particles and offer another layer of protection. If you haven’t, please consider ordering a home COVID-19 test kit as well (see link below). As always, notify us immediately if you are exposed or have symptoms.

Wishing you good health,

CG Escandon, MD

Douglas Payne, MD

Links:

KN95 masks: (https://www.amazon.com/dp/B089P1RC2K/ref=dp_prsubs_1)

Home COVID-19 test kits: (https://www.pixel.labcorp.com)

Medical grade HEPA filter: (https://medifyair.com)

COVID-19 Information

For the week of 4/19/2021

Assumptions:

• Mortality rate between 0.5% and 1.5% — using 0.75%

• This means 1 death for every 133 infections

• For April 19 — 2,499 total deaths = 333,000 total cases

• 60% or 507,000 El Pasoans have not been infected yet

• The number of deaths lags behind the number of infections by 2-4 weeks

• We estimate the current infection rate to be higher than stated as of April 19th

Assumptions:

Staffed Hospital Beds: 1754

Available Hospital Beds: 572 (1/3 of total)

Staffed ICU Beds: 234

Available ICU Beds: 77 (1/3 of total)

COVID-19 Vaccine: Additional Resources

Although shipments have been very sporadic, you may have success with these providers in addition to those listed above.

Mountain West Family Medicine (915) 584-8124
Immunize El Paso East (915) 857-2474
Texas Tech Physicians of El Paso Transmountain (915) 215-8400
El Paso Pulmonary Association (915) 532-2477
Family Medicine Associates of El Paso (915) 594-1033
EP Family Doctor (915) 855-7000
Dr Lipanova (915) 751-5245
Dr Calianga (915) 592-6868

Please get vaccinated as soon as you can!


CG Escandon, MD
Douglas Payne, MD